The Victoria BC Princess Bride Weekend Weather Forecast: Feb 15-17

As You Wish.

Since today is Valentine’s Day, the weekend forecast has excerpts from the movie The Princess Bride: Meteorologists Version. If you haven’t seen this movie about love and adventure (you must btw) you won’t know the classic lines, so this post will be utter nonsense. Even if you know them all,  it will still be utter nonsense. I blame it on the iocane powder (trying to build up my immunity you know) .

I  produce these forecasts on Thursday nights, and sometimes I am squeezed for time. If you rush a forecaster, you get rotten forecasts.  But don’t fall victim to one of the classic forecast blunders – The most famous of which is “never get involved in a land war in Asia” – but only slightly less well-known is this: “Never go against a Meteorologist when accuracy is on the line”! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha…(thunk).

But really, I do this because I have a passion for Meteorwology….. Meteorwology is wot bwings us togeder tooday…… Meteorwology, that bwessed awangment, that dweam wifin a dweam…

Yes I admit it, I am the Dread Prognosticator Roberts, so here is what to expect this weekend.

Friday: A ridge from Guilder will bring us pleasant conditions with a mix of sun and cloud and light winds. A high of 10 C. Yep. Inconceivable.

Saturday: The cold front will arrive from Florin in the early morning bringing with it some rain. What about the R.O.U.S’s (Raindrops of Unusual Size?). So let me explain. No, there is too much. Let me sum up. Rain will be off and on through the morning but will end around noon. Expect some afternoon sunny periods and breezes. A high of 9 C.

Sunday: Cooler, with breezy conditions and a high of 7 C. Expect a cloudy sky.  But it just so happens that your sky here is only MOSTLY cloudy. There’s a big difference between MOSTLY cloudy and ALL cloudy. Mostly cloudy is slightly sunny. With all cloudy, well, with all cloudy there’s usually only one thing you can do. End this forecast.

So there it is.  Since the invention of the forecast, there have been five forecasts rated the most accurate, the most pure. This one left them all behind.

The end.

 

 

Victoria British Columbia, Family Day Long Weekend Weather Forecast: Feb 8-11th

An Omega Block Party Weekend

This post will be on the technical side just because I am excited to see this neat pressure feature, called an “Omega Block” set up over the next few days – thanks to Cliff Mass’s blog (cliffmass.blogspot.ca) that alerted me to this on Weds.   An Omega Block is a pressure pattern that looks like the Greek symbol Omega (Ω).  Here is the forecast 500 hPa isobaric map from today’s WRF model run from the University of Washington (http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/gfsinit.html) showing the pattern on Friday morning.

You can see the extended ridge of H pressure in the middle, and two anchoring L’s or troughs on either side (shown in the red shaded areas) – creating an Omega pattern.

The pattern will shift and morph through Monday but will basically keep this basic shape.  I normally see Omega Blocks during the summer, where the pattern is farther north and more aligned along the coast.  When this occurs, if you are in the middle of the Omega then you can expect a long stretch of pleasant summer weather as the pattern tends to “settle in” – as if the atmosphere has reached resonance and has nestled into a nice comfy chair.

Although the Omega will influence our weekend weather,  we will be near the top end of it – so not completely protected from minor systems passing by but still all in all, it will be nice by winter standards.   Here is the forecast:

Friday: Sunny with some afternoon haze. Winds light. High 9 C.

Saturday: Cloudy, with sunny breaks in the p.m.  Winds light. High 8 C.

Sunday: Sunny breaks in the a.m., then cloudy.  Winds light. High 7 C.

Monday: Cloudy with afternoon breezes.  High 9 C.

This weekend, nestle into a nice comfy chair.

weatherwit

Victoria British Columbia Weekend Weather Forecast: Feb 1-3 AND Spring Forecast

Punxsutawney Phil’s Special Day

There are two momentous days in February: Groundhog Day and Valentines Day. Please don’t get the two mixed up.  This Saturday is Groundhog Day where according to legend if a groundhog emerges from their den and sees their shadow – expect six more weeks of winter. If not, expect an early spring.

Although Punxsutawney Phil is the most famous groundhog (and the only married one – his wife’s name is Phyllis), there are several others: Staten Island Chuck (“Hey, you talk’n to me?”), General Beauregard Lee (“Pay no never mind to me”), and the Canadian groundhogs: Shudenacadie Sam, Balzac Billie and Wiarton Willie (“Wow, cold eh? – Let’s go to Timmys”).

The Groundhog Day ceremony in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania is bizarre as it gets. Phil emerges from his lair on Gobbler’s Knob and “talks” to the Groundhog Club President in a secret language called “Groundhogese” (I kid you not). The President in turn translates his proclamation to the rest of the free world.  According to scientists Phil is correct only 37% of the time – which some would say is about the same accuracy as the long-range weather forecasts from trained, intelligent meteorologists.  This leads me to wonder if the shadow rule should be switched around (when there is a shadow, and early spring is forecast, not a late one) in which case he would be correct 63% percent of the time.

Not to be outdone, because there is no Victoria groundhog, on Saturday I will take an old stuffed teddy bear outside and hold it up to see if there is a shadow.  You can try this yourself – a real groundhog or any rodent will be better than a teddy bear, but it probably won’t make any difference.

Now speaking of spring, this weekend is shaping up give us a hint of what is to come due to a high pressure ridge then sitting over the region till Sunday.   Here are the weekend details:

Friday: Some cloud with lots of hazy sun.  Winds light.  Highs of 7 C.

Saturday: Hazy sun all day.  A steady breeze with highs of 8 C.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with sunny breaks.  Expect rain by evening.  A bit cooler with highs of 6 C.

Incidentally, the long-range outlook using advanced scientific models for the spring (March, April, May) show a bias toward cooler than normal temperatures – which means spring could be later this year.  However, before you jump to conclusions, let’s see what happens on Saturday when my teddy bear emerges.

weatherwit.

Victoria British Columbia Weekend Weather Forecast: January 18 – 20

The Five Best Toys

Now that the commercialized part of Christmas is over, I was wondering what kids really want in toys.   The answer came in a Wired article where the author (J. Liu) listed his 5 Best Toys of All Time based on budget, availability, history, age applicability and kid approval.  Did books or gadgets or dolls or software make the list?  Nope, but these did:

sticks

boxes

string

cardboard tubes

dirt

We don’t have to think too hard to realize how much fun playing we had with each of these – and probably still do.  It is probably why I enjoy golfing – there are sticks (clubs), cardboard tubes (club bag), boxes (tee boxes) and lots of dirt (sand traps and divots).

So what’s the dirt on the weather this weekend?  The large upper level ridge that has waltzed just off the coast all week will do a 2-step and move over us, bringing us brighter skies and quiet conditions. Although cool at the ground, there is warm air above resulting in an “inversion” – which means any fog/low cloud will hang near the ground .  FYI the high altitude balloon flight over the Olympic Peninsula this afternoon measured a temperature of 13 C at about 700 m above us – so who needs to head south for some warmth – just go up a few hundred meters.

Expect the upper ridge to stay over us through Sunday so it looks like a pleasant weekend.  Here are the details:

 Friday: Clear and sunny in the a.m. unless there is fog/low cloud obscuring things due to the  inversion.  Thin cloud moving over around noonish, so expect hazy periods in the p.m. Winds light with highs of 8 C.

Saturday: A mix of clear and cloudy bits and haze and again,  we may be in for some fog and low cloud due to the inversion – but hopefully the skies should stay bright through the day. Winds light with highs of 8 C.

 Sunday: Same as Saturday.

This weekend, I’m playing golf.

weatherwit

Victoria British Columbia Weekend Weather Forecast: Jan 11-13

New Years Dissolutions – Part II

Carrying on with the theme of New Years Resolutions, I refer to the article by Dave Barry on this topic and his  wise words of advice: Be Realistic in setting your goals.   For example, an unrealistic goal would be:

“I will learn to speak Chinese”.

His realistic goal is:  “I will learn to order some Chinese food”.

Sounds good to me Dave.

For a realistic forecast this weekend, a modified Arctic air mass has pushed over us bringing sunny and dry conditions along with cool temperatures.   After a dark and rainy start to the week due to a near-Pineapple Express (a Pineapple chunk) I am glad to see that glowing orb in the sky (I think it is called “the sun”).   This air mass will settle in for the weekend and will resolve to bring us mostly dry and cool conditions.  Here are the details:

Friday: Thin cloud with a hazy, glowing sun.  Winds light with highs of 4 C.

Saturday:  It looks like a slight disturbance in the Force in the morning with cloud and precipitation (and possibly snow) at higher elevations.  One of my more knowledgeable colleagues at work said with this particular pressure pattern, snow may dribble over the city.   However it looks like the will clear off in the p.m.  Winds light with highs of 4 C.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with occasional sunny periods.  Winds light with highs of 5 C.

This weekend, I’m making more resolutions – when I get around to it.

weatherwit

 

Victoria British Columbia Weekend Weather Forecast: Jan 4-6

New Year’s Dissolutions

Every year I make resolutions that I can’t keep, so this year it’s time for easy resolutions – baby steps just so there is progress in the right direction (even if it is just a little).   After seeing  few resolutions on the net and making up a some of my own, here they are for 2013:

• stop putting butter on doughnuts
• keep my signal light on wherever I drive (just so I won’t forget)
• read the first page of the instruction manual
• get more sleep by waking up later
• leave things until the last-minute – after all it’s better than not doing it at all

So even these small steps will get me going on the right direction.  After all, as Yogi Berra said:  “If you don’t know where you are going, you might end up somewhere else”

Now what will the weather resolve to do this weekend?

 Friday:  Cloudy, with rain in the early a.m. ending by the morning commute.  Winds light with highs of 7 C.

Saturday:  Cloudy, with rain starting around noon and then off and on through the day.  Afternoon breezes with highs of 7 C.

 Sunday:  Cloudy with rain in the a.m. ending by late afternoon.  A breezy morning with lighter winds later in the day with highs of 6 C.

This weekend, take some baby steps. You’ll be better for it.

weatherwit.

Victoria British Columbia Dec 21-23 Weekend and Christmas Day Weather Forecast

The Canadian Tremors

Every year ‘round this time a group of my friends sing Carols at an extended care residence.    We walk slowly down the hallways while singing – and where allowed, go into the rooms and serenade the residents with some cheer.

At some point in the proceedings B. and I got separated from our group and the two of us ended up in a room singing to a couple of elderly gentlemen. They sat up in their beds listening politely with arms crossed and what seemed like frowns on their faces – no doubt due to our poor imitation of the Canadian Tenors.  A this point I became quite self-conscious and my face pushed deeper into the song sheet.

When the song ended there was a long pause as we stared at each other in silence.  Then as if on cue their faces lit up with sparkling eyes, broad smiles and they stretched out their hands for a warm and vigorous handshake.

“Thanks fellas for singing….and Merry Christmas to you”.

Some gifts you remember, and this was one of them……

So what kind of weather merriment will enter our room this weekend?

Saturday: Cloudy with showers in the late a.m. ending mid afternoon.  Winds light and highs of 7 C.

Sunday: Rain the early pm. then turning to scattered showers the rest of the day. Cloudy and breezy with highs of 5 C.

Tuesday: (Christmas Day): The forecast is tricky this far out, but there are indications of a wet frontal system arriving mid-day. If this happens, then expect snow at higher elevations for a few hours – and some may trickle over us.  So with the accompanying winds, a white and windy Christmas is possible while the front passes through.

This weekend, be a gift to remember.

weatherwit